Global warming is arguably one of the most controversial and emotionally charged issues on the planet. To some, human beings are literally destroying the world as we know it, and driving it to an apocalyptic end, at an alarmingly fast rate. To the sceptics, we are just experiencing the inevitable peaks and troughs of weather patterns that fit within the normal statistical probability distribution, if measured over a long enough period of time. The issue is not whether a coal fired power station emits carbon into the atmosphere, or even whether carbon does indeed effect the atmosphere -  the real issue is whether this is actually causing global warming.

I am reading a very interesting book called “The Invisible Gorilla” by Christopher Charis and Daniel Simons. They were the originators of the famous gorilla experiment that proves the limitations of our multi-tasking abilities. For those who haven’t seen it I won’t spoil it for you, but suffice to say when concentrating on something else we can literally look at a gorilla and not see it.  The book discusses various illusions of our cognitive abilities, and especially addresses some myths in the way we think about the way our mind works. Of particular interest is our poor ability in seeing the limitations in the linkage between cause and effect.  In my experience this is especially true at work.

I recall in past operational management roles, that when the financial results were good, I was seen as an excellent manager doing all the right things, yet without changing anything that I was doing, if the results were poor, I was criticised for doing everything wrong. This is an example of not understanding cause-effect. Management’s true impact (cause) is often only seen in the long term, yet in this instant results culture, we measure success (effects) quarterly, or even monthly.

I am researching some examples to use in my upcoming “Managing Up’ seminar and it is interesting to look at a well-known character – Steve Jobs. Given his phenomenal success in turning Apple around – twice – pundits have begun to look for cause of that great effect. It is hard to speak ill of the deceased, but it turns out that Steve had a black side to his personality that made him an awful manager at times. He shouted at people, threw tantrums in the office, humiliated employees and even used his management status to park his Mercedes in the company’s disabled parking bays. Unless we heed the warning of Charis and Simons – that our intuitive judgement on cause-effect is poor - it would be easy to justify those terrible management behaviours as a necessary consequence of getting great results.

So what’s the bottom line? Is global warming real, when we are also experiencing the coldest weather in 100 years? Whatever side of the debate you are on, surely protecting our planet from further harm is the primary issue. A natural tsunami may cause more devastation to the Great Ocean Barrier Reef than 50 man-made mines, but is that truly a good justification to destroy it further?

In the same way, justifying your own poor management behaviours by quoting someone who had great business results with the same weaknesses, is falling into the trap of the illusion of cause-effect.

I am running an in-company strategy session on Friday. The purpose is to get the team members of a few back-office functions in this company together with their managers, in order to get buy-in to the new KPI’s for the upcoming financial year.

In the past, these sorts of KPI-setting sessions would have only been done with the executive team, but my insight has been that in the knowledge-based era, everyone should be clear about their purpose, clear about the role they play and clear about the business contribution they make, in moving the company forward to the next level.

The skilled staff who do the task-based activities are the ones who can most easily see what needs to be fixed in the various supporting systems and processes, to address the root causes of known problems. Historically people have complained to senior management that somebody should understand and fix their environment. The implication is that senior management should get involved and come down and fix their environment. The reality is that senior management do not have the time, or expertise to address these problems.  A modern team needs to not only produce the business results expected, but should also be fixing the underlying issues that hinder their performance. So long as this is done in a way that is linked to the overall business objectives, this self-empowering methodology is very powerful. When the entire team gets together to understand the company goals and is involved in setting their own goals, which are causally linked to the company’s business goals, you have a winning formula. This results in buy-in and commitment.

When a team are committed to outcomes, when obstacles get in their way, they make a plan. Without commitment, all you get is compliance – and failure, communicated with a very good excuse, still counts as compliance! Teamwork starts being effective when the team members understand that somebody should fix the underlying causes of problems, and that they are indeed somebody!

All the world’s eyes are on the footfall World Cup at the moment. Prior to the tournament there were all sorts of predictions of the best players, the best teams and likely odds of match outcomes. One reason why sport is so great to watch is the unexpected can happen. When the Netherlands beat tournament favourites Spain 5-1, you would not blame the average Australian for fearing the worst – as they were up against the Netherlands in the following match. When Australia only lost 2-1 to them -  and Tim Cahill the veteran top scorer scored arguably the goal of the tournament  -   you would think that Australia had won the finals, based on public euphoria. Despite losing, Australia was proud. England – the world’s first football playing nation, that hosts the top players in the world in their premier league, also consoled themselves that it was a young team with potential. Nobody expected them to win.

In business, it is always stressed that it is the results that matter. Performance is measured by outcomes, not effort. So is conventional wisdom wrong?

The reality is that both Australia and England lost and are out of the world cup. There are no rewards for effort. No TV advertising contracts will be signed with them and the fans will not be happy if they never win anything again, even if they do continue to play well.  

The error is not in assuming that results do not matter – the error is in assuming that results always matter, irrespective of when you measure them. The short term focus in today’s world does not allow teams or businesses the time to build behaviours and activities that will end up in good results, in the long run. Lead indicators do matter and luck plays a big part in results than we would like to admit. When a sales person closes a big deal it is easy to identify the things they did right and when they lose it, it is just as easy to identify the list of mistake they made. But no one is as clear or certain prior to deal closure.

If a team continues to do the right things in the right way, in the long run they should see the results. In the meantime, the reality of life is that no matter how proud they feel of their activities and performance, no bonuses can be banked until they achieve the desired results!